🧮 Free Tool

Poker Staking Calculator

Real math before real money. Calculate EV, breakeven, and ROI for any staking deal — in seconds.

Deal Parameters
⚠️ This player is selling 100% action at 1.0x — they have no skin in the game. They're freerolling on your investment.
📊 Historical ROI above 100% is rare. Verify the sample size before trusting these numbers.
💡 At 0% markup (1.0x), you're paying fair share. EV is entirely determined by the player's ROI.
Buy-in Amount ($) i
The tournament buy-in (before markup)
Buy-in is the entry fee for the tournament. This is the base amount before any markup is applied. On TourneyDonk, players list their buy-in and set a markup multiplier separately.
Markup Multiplier i
Backers pay 1.10x per dollar of action — a 10% premium
Markup is what backers pay per dollar of action.

1.2x — backers pay $1.20 per $1 of action (20% premium)
1.0x — backers pay exactly their share (no markup)

Higher markup = worse deal for you as a backer. Proven players with strong ROI can justify higher markup.
% Action Purchasing i
How much of the player's action you're buying
Action % is your ownership stake in the player's result.

If you buy 10% action on a $1,000 buy-in, you own 10% of whatever they cash for. If they min-cash for $1,200, you receive $120. If they win $50,000, you receive $5,000.
Player's Historical ROI (%) i
Expected return per dollar invested over time
ROI (Return on Investment) measures how much a player earns per dollar of buy-in over their career.

A 15% ROI means for every $100 they enter, they earn $115 back on average. The average live tournament player has negative ROI after rake. A 10-20% ROI is considered solid. Above 50% is elite.

Always verify with actual results. Self-reported stats are not reliable.
▼ Advanced Options
Field Size (entrants) i
Used to estimate best-case prize. Leave at 1,000 if unknown.
Field size determines the estimated prize pool and first-place prize.

Formula: Prize pool ≈ field × buy-in × 0.9 (90% after rake). First place ≈ 25% of prize pool (varies by payout structure).
Your Expected Outcome
Expected Value (EV)
+$XX.XX
+EV deal at current settings
Your Cost i
$XX
Action% × Buy-in × Markup
Your ROI% i
+XX%
Expected % return on your investment cost
Breakeven ROI i
XX%
Player needs this ROI for you to break even. Equals (markup - 1) × 100.
Expected Return
$XX
Outcome Range
Worst: -$XX EV Best: +$XX
🏆 Best Case (1st place est.) +$XX
📊 Expected (EV) +$XX
💀 Worst Case (bust) -$XX
Back Real Players →
Sensitivity Analysis
EV at Varying ROI × Markup Combinations

How your expected value changes as player ROI and markup shift. Gold outline = current settings.

How Poker Staking Math Works

Most Stablemasters back players on vibes. A player seems good, the markup seems reasonable, and it "feels" like a smart bet. That's how money disappears. Here's the math that actually matters.

Expected Value (EV) is the only number that counts

EV tells you whether a deal makes money over many repetitions. A positive EV (+EV) deal returns profit in the long run. A negative EV (-EV) deal loses money no matter how many times you convince yourself the player is due. In poker staking, your EV is determined by three factors: how much you're paying (cost), how much of the upside you own (action %), and how good the player actually is (ROI).

Markup is where deals get bad fast

Markup is a tax on your investment. At 1.0x, you pay your fair share. At 1.2x, you pay $1.20 for every $1 of action — a 20% premium before the player has played a hand. This isn't necessarily a bad deal: proven players with documented edges can justify premium prices, the same way a skilled fund manager charges a fee. The question is whether the player's ROI covers the markup cost. That's exactly what the breakeven ROI shows you. If the player's historical ROI is below the breakeven threshold, you're making a -EV investment by definition.

ROI without sample size is noise

A player claiming 50% ROI over 20 tournaments is statistically meaningless. Tournament poker has extreme variance — even breakeven players can show 50%+ ROI over small samples. When evaluating a player, look for 200+ tournaments of live results to get signal. The Player Stats Verification Pipeline on TourneyDonk audits results and provides verified ROI numbers you can actually use in this calculator.

The breakeven ROI tells you your margin of safety

If markup is 1.1x, you break even when the player ROIs at exactly 10%. Every percentage point of verified ROI above 10% is your profit margin. A player at 25% ROI with 1.1x markup gives you a ~13.6% expected return on your investment — sustainable, repeatable edge. Back enough of these deals and the math compounds in your favor.

Ready to apply this to real players? Browse the marketplace and find deals where the numbers work.

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